OFF TRACKS

Traditional guidance about handicapping on off tracks, if it ever made sense, amounts to nonsense today. Mud does not favor closers. Neither do slow tracks that remain wet. Regardless of the official condition of the racing strip, wet surfaces favor speed.

Tracks officially labeled muddy, heavy, slow, and good can be either wet or drying, but usually they will be wet. Sloppy surfaces are obviously wet. Speed horses will be advantaged.

That conclusion derives from the probability studies of the 1970s and 1980s, conducted on a national sample of 5400 races. The studies revealed that on off-track surfaces of any kind, horses constituting the rear halves of the fields at the first-call positions won approximately half as many races as they should have. The lead horse at the first call on off tracks won at least twice as many races as probabilities would expect. And the leader on muddy tracks won three times as many races.

Drying surfaces pose peculiar problems, but usually only after extended rains where tracks dry out slowly, as at Santa Anita. When the goo has turned to butterscotch pudding, frontrunners do tire. For a time, until firm conditions resurface, off-pace horses will be advantaged. Deep closers may be strongly advantaged, winning a disproportionate share of races.

Because track surfaces typically drain toward the inside, at these abnormal times the rail position may further complicate the speed horses' trips. Handicappers observe the speed horses stopping prematurely or tiring conspicuously, and the closers rallying impressively.

During these brief atypical intervals, handicappers benefit by backing classy closers. They benefit later by observing now which frontrunners persevered willingly on the tiring surfaces. In a few weeks the same frontrunners will reappear, and now the track surface will not hinder them. Several will win at higher odds than they carried on the off tracks.

A contemporary problem associated with off tracks attaches to a change in routine track maintenance procedures. Heavy rollers press over the track surface repeatedly, compressing the topmost soil. Instead of seeping underneath, the rain rolls off. The idea is to preserve a fast, honest surface, but unwanted consequences intrude. Sealing hardens track surfaces unfairly, such that front speed, including cheap speed, is less likely to tire than normally. Indeed, an opposite effect occurs. Running times improve extraordinarily.

Figure handicappers must remember to discount abnormally fast adjusted times (wet-fast) recorded on muddy or sloppy surfaces when the track has been sealed. Variants will have been extreme, the resulting figures untenable. Do not rely upon numerical ratings of horses that impressed uncharacteristically on these surfaces. The ratings will be bogus. They cannot be repeated under normal conditions.

Reliable indicators of which horses might move up surprisingly in the slop and mud include pedigree and strong performances on similar surfaces.