MAIDEN-CLAIMING GRADUATES

When should last-out winners of maiden-claiming races be expected to beat previous winners or close runners-up in open competition?

The circumstance hounds even the best of handicappers. Maiden-claiming races feature the cheapest horses on the grounds in the slowest races on the cards. The traditional guideline has been conservative, and rightfully so. Expect maiden-claiming graduates to win at selling prices roughly 50 percent below the maiden-claiming price.

Recreational handicappers without numerical ratings should cling to the traditional standard. Maiden-claiming graduates normally lose next time, in part because they cannot run as swiftly as prior open-claiming winners, in part because stables tend to enter them against winners too ambitiously. Conservative practice protects against the downside.

Recreational handicappers in possession of pace ratings can proceed differently. They can support maiden-claiming graduates when they are entered for a claim and possess higher pace ratings than any other horse in the field.

When maiden-claiming graduates next enter a nonwinners allowance race, the logic shifts. Now pace ratings are indicative but inconclusive. Even superior pace ratings do not translate easily to an allowance win. That's because allowance horses possess reserves of speed and energy claiming horses do not. The allowance runners can turn up the tempo, or pace, and persevere. When they do, the vast majority of maiden-claiming winners cannot stay with them.