TurfPedia™ - The Horse Racing Encyclopedia

CONTENTIOUS RACES

The race is contentious. Four horses, or more, share a legitimate chance. None wield a firm upper hand. If probabilities were estimated, none would exceed a 20 percent maximum. That indicates natural odds of 4-1, minimum. Overlay odds would be higher.

An intelligent strategy for coping successfully with contentious races can be summarized succinctly. Discard the favorite and other low-priced contenders. Support the outstanding overlays. Perhaps more than one in the same race. The greater the overlay, the better.

Many generous mutuels await the competent handicappers of contentious races. In the nature of the events, some contenders will be underlays, some will be overlays, and some will be fabulous overlays. This strategy applies:

Eliminate the favorite
Eliminate low-priced contenders
Support the outstanding overlays to win
Support marginal overlays with smaller protective win bets

If exactas are offered, box key contenders in contentious fields with all other contenders that are attractive overlays.