BOUNCE PATTERNS

Anytime horses win or finish within a length in rapid time following layoffs of five months or longer, the comeback efforts should be regarded as overexertions, which can trigger the phenomenon called the "bounce" pattern. The strenuous comeback races take too much energy too soon, tax the muscles, and suggest the horses might regress in their conditioning if they return to the races too soon, as long as 30 days to six weeks.

The horses often perform below expectation, falling back, or bouncing, when the going gets tough in the late stages. Moreover, because the comeback races were impressive, the public overbets the horses next out. They "bounce" at low odds, a pattern handicappers surely wish to avoid.

A particularly optimistic aspect of the bounce pattern is precisely that the horses lose as underlays, but bounce back, and often win, next time, as overlays. Because the horses have disappointed at low odds, the public discounts them. But in the third start following a layoff, any effects of overexertion in the comeback effort have been nullified by continuous training and a second race.

How many horses that win on the comeback should be expected to bounce?
Answer: Two out of three.