SIMPLE TECHNIQUES

SPEED POINTS
The most popular of all the simple techniques, Speed Points is a rating method for evaluating early speed. The technique points out the frontrunners and pace pressers most likely to be first, second, and third during the early stages of races. And these horses win most frequently--two and one-half times their rightful share of the races at six furlongs, twice as many races at six and one-half furlongs, and one and one-half as many races as they should at seven furlongs.

Best of all, it pays to pay attention to early-speed horses. On average, horses that win by going wire to wire in front pay 9-2, or $11.00

SPEED POINTS
All horses are assigned 1 point to begin. In the end, horses will have a high of 5 points or a low of zero points.
Starting with the most recent race in the record (past performances), we will rate three races.
Never go back more than five races in the record.
Horses earn speed points depending upon their position and beaten lengths at the first call of their races. The 1st call occurs after the horses have run two furlongs in sprints and four furlongs in routes.

THE RULES
FOR SPRINTS;
All horses begin with 1 point
1 point
for any horse that has been 1-2-3 at the 1st call and
1 point
for any horse within 2 lengths at the 1st call
0 points
for any other sprint performance

Exceptions
7 furlongs
to get 1 point for position, horse must be 1st at 1st call
Routes
0 points for any route performance, unless the horse was within 1 length of the leader at the 1st call, in which case do not rate that race

FOR ROUTES
1 point
for any horse that has been 1-2-3 at the 1st call and 1 point for any horse within 3 lengths at the 1st call
0 points for any other route performance
Exceptions
Sprints
1 point for any horse 1-2-3 at the 1st call
And
1 point for any horse within 5 lengths at the 1st call
At this point horses will have earned between
1 and 7 Speed Points.

BONUS POINT
Horses having 7 speed points
Are awarded a bonus point if they have been within a neck of the leader in each of their rated races.
Loss of Original Point.
Horses having 1 point lose the point if they failed to beat half the field at the first call in each of their rated races.

THE POINTS.
What do the various points actually mean?
8 OR 7 HIGH EARLY SPEED.

These are the consistent frontrunners and pacepressers that tend to break quickly and contest the early pace.
6 OR 5 GOOD EARLY SPEED.
These horses also break sharply and often will be near the front or on the front at the first call. They are usually no more than two or three lengths in back of the frontrunners no matter how fast the early pace.

4 ACCEPTABLE EARLY SPEED.
This is the dividing line. We want horses to show acceptable early speed at least, which means they can be counted upon to race in the top half of the field during the early stage of the race and have good striking position at the second call.
3 OR 2 OR 1 OR 0 POOR EARLY SPEED.

HOT TIP
If horses have poor early speed (3,2,1 or 0 speed points), Look immediately at their customary position and beaten lengths at the second call. They should usually be within 2 3/4 lengths of the leader in sprints and within 3 1/2 lengths of the leader in routes. If they usually are farther back, they becomes poor bets to win, at least much of the time. They can be backed to place and show in exactas and trifectas perhaps, but they are best discounted to win.

THE METHOD
Handicappers are urged to look for any horse having 5 or more speed points and two points higher than any other horse. These horses have a definite early-speed advantage and many of them will go wire to wire.

In addition, add the speed points for all the horses in the race. Divide that sum into the horse having the highest number of speed points. Any horse having 30 percent or more of a race 5 early speed can be an automatic bet. These horses show a profit long term.

FORM STANDARDS
A basic mistake newcomers and novices repeat on the form factor is eliminating too many horses prematurely, either because they have not run within 30 to 45 days or because their most recent race looks dull.

Instead, it pays to be flexible and liberal on the form factor early in the handicapping process, when the purpose is to identify the authentic contenders.

If newcomers, novices, and casual racegoers would rely upon the few form standards below instead, they will be right most of the time and not eliminate the eventual winners too soon.

We start with horses that have run within the past 30 days, the largest group of horses at the racetrack.

HAVE RACED WITHIN 30 DAYS
Must be "Up close" at the stretch call. The "up close" standard varies with the distance, i.e.,
Sprints to 6.5f 2 3/4 lengths
7f and 1 Mile 3 3/4 lengths
8.5f and longer 4 3/4 lengths

TWO EXCEPTIONS
If horses are dropping in class today, they can be "up close" at any call in their most recent start.
If today's race is shorter, horses can be "up close" at pre-stretch call in their most recent start.

SHORT LAYOFFS 31 to 60 days
Must show a four-furlong workout (or longer) within the past 7 days. Times of the workouts are not relevant.

LONG LAYOFFS 61 days to 1-year
Must show a five-furlong workout (or longer) within the past 14 days. If the five-furlong workout occurred more than two weeks ago but is part of a regular pattern of workouts, that's acceptable. Times of the workouts are not relevant.

That's all. Later in the handicapping, when final decisions are pending, other stricter form standards can be considered, but early in the handicapping, when identifying contenders, these few form standards carry the cause very well.

BEYER SPEED PARS
Pars are average times, the typical final times a particular class of horse runs a specific distance at a specific racetrack, such as $20,000 claiming horses running six furlongs at Santa Anita.

The Beyer Speed Figures in the Daily Racing Form can inform casual racegoers how fast the horses have run in the past, an important piece of information, and they are best interpreted in relation to a par time. Par of faster than par is good. Too many lengths below par is weak and in most situations indicates an unlikely winner.

Speed handicappers rely upon highly specific par times for each class of horse at each distance at each racetrack, but casual racegoers can get along fairly well with a few common pars for broad classes of horses in sprints and routes, respectively, that would apply across a wide array of racetracks.

We divide the racetracks simply into "major tracks" and "other" tracks.

BEYER SPEED PARS

	Major	Tracks	Other	Tracks
Class	Sprints	Routes	Sprints	Routes
Low-level claiming $10,000 to $16,000	83	80	77	74
Mid-level claiming $20,000 to $32,000	93	88	87	82
High-level claiming $40,000 to $62,500	98	94	92	88
Non-winners allowances	98	94	86	80
Classified allowances	103	99	90	84
Stakes	108	103	96	90
Grade 1/Grade 2 Stk.	112	107	112	107
Maiden races	85	82	79	75

The pars are for older males. If races are limited to females, subtract 8 points. If races are limited to 3YOs, claiming races only, subtract 15 points during winter (Jan-Mar), 9 points during spring and summer (Apr-Aug), and 5 points during fall (Sept-Dec).

Memorize these pars. Compare horses' Beyer Speed figures in the Daily Racing form with the appropriate pars. Keep in mind that numerous races will be won by horses that run a couple lengths slower than par. Accept horses on speed that have run par or five points below par (two lengths).

When all the horses in a race are below par by more than two lengths (5 points), the race is not predictable by speed handicapping.

OTHER SPEED FIGURES.
A simple technique for evaluating horses on speed is to compare the speed figures of their most recent six/races to the typical speed figures the winners of these kinds of races tend to record.

Look at the chart below. It shows the minimum acceptable speed figures recorded by winners of the various kinds of races for three classes of racetracks, New York-Southern California, Other Major Tracks, and Minor Tracks.

Class	New York So. Calif	Other Major	Minor
Clm-$10-12.5	77	77	70
Clm-$16-20	82	82	67
Clm-$25	87	84	xx
Clm-$32-40	91	87	xx
Clm-$50-75	95	91	xx
Maiden	82	75	68
Alw, NW1X	92	85	78
Alw, NW2x	95	89	xx
Alw, NW3X	97	91	xx
Stakes	101	94	88
Gr.1-Gr.2	105	103	xx

Standard Adjustments
1. In races for fillies and mares, subtract 8 points.
2. In claiming races limited to 3YOs, subtract 13 points from Jan-Apr, 8 points from May-Aug, and 5 points from Sept-Dec.

TRAINER PERFORMANCE
The trainer is not as important as the horse, but trainer performance is an important factor in handicapping.

Early in the handicapping, when identifying contenders, it's crucial to identify trainers as low-percentage (0), acceptable (N), or high-percentage (+). In particular, low-percentage trainers post a warning sign. Handicappers can resolve to support the horses of low-percentage trainers only when:
(a) their horses figure strongly and
(b) the odds are good.
When the horses of low-percentage trainers are the favorites or low-priced contenders in a contentious or unpredictable race, it's best to pass.

What is a low-percentage trainer? Trainers should be expected to win approximately 12% of their starts over a long, representative period of time, such as a calendar year. The 12% represents the percentage of horses they start; they should win a similar percent.

Allowing for normal fluctuations, if trainers win only 50% of the races they should win, that's a low-percentage trainer. So the dividing line is---6%

The Daily Racing Forms' past performances provide the trainer's win percentage for the current meeting and for the calendar year. Rely upon the calendar year. If a trainer's win% is 6% or less for the year, that's a low-percentage trainer; mark down the horse's chances.

A high-percentage trainer wins half again as many races as he or she should, or 18% and greater. Give those horses extra credit.

If trainers win between 7% and 17% of their starts, the horses are acceptable, at least early in the handicapping, when identifying contenders.

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