TurfPedia - The Horse Racing Encyclopedia

AGE

Can Three-year-olds beat older horses?
Yes and No. It depends:
1. On the kinds of races
2. On the time of the year

When races are carded for horses 3 and up, handicappers best prefer the three-year-olds or older horses variously, as follows:

Three-year-olds
Maiden
Allowance, NW1x
Allowance, NW2x
Allowance, NW3x,4x
4 and up
Claiming
Classified Allowance
Stakes

Age is not a meaningful factor in Maiden-Claiming races

In comparison to older horses, Three-year-olds run considerably slower early in the calendar year, but comparably faster as the year progresses.

By summer, better Three-year-olds can compete well enough in stakes open to older horses and top Three-year-olds can win these races. By fall, good Three-year-olds can defeat older runners in many Stakes, including the Breeders' Cup Championship Races.

Cheaper Three-year-olds, the claimers, are notoriously inconsistent and unreliable. Good races are not repeated. Form reversals are common.

During the first half of the year especially, to less extent later, any 3YO moving from an even effort or acceptable performance in an allowance race to a claiming race limited to Three-year-olds is making a big drop in class and may be the best bet of the day or week.

When Three-year-olds turn 4, during Jan-Feb look for claiming horses moving from races open to 4 and up to races limited to four-year-olds. A good effort in the 4 and up race may translate to an easy win in the race restricted to four-year-olds.

Older horses generally dominate the Three-year-olds in claiming races, but not as much in low-level claiming races ($10,000 and below) or in restricted claiming races, limited to non-winners of two races lifetime at today's claiming price.

Two-year-olds tend to run as fast as they can for as long as they can. Prefer the Two-year-olds having the highest speed figures.

The Two-year-olds that win sprint stakes during spring and summer tend not to win route stakes during fall. Look instead for Two-year-olds that have already run well at the route or are bred to go long.

Claiming horses aged seven and older tend to decline. If their performance ratings have slipped, prefer the four-year-olds and five-year-olds against them.

When leading stakes winners turn 5, look to see if their speed figures have begun to decline. If so, discount them, unless they are taking a drop in class.