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QUIRIN SPEED & PACE FIGURES

Another approach to figure handicapping has been less publicized than Beyer's Method perhaps, but performs equally as well, and in certain situations significantly better. The approach was described in two important books on handicapping by Bill Quirin, a professor of mathematics and computer science at Adelphi University, in Garden City, New York, Along with Beyer, Quirin has exerted a profound influence on the practice of figure handicapping in this country.

While compiling par times at every racetrack in the nation, it was Quirin's discovery that $10,000 older claiming horses were virtually interchangeable in ability. That does not mean that $10,000 claiming horses at Waterford Park can ship into New York and beat $10,000 horses there, but the exceptions are too few and too unimportant to distort the general tendencies, which are very important.

Quirin's method sets the $10,000 claiming pars equal to 100. Speed figures improve or decline by a point for each fifth of a second a horse has run faster or slower than the $10,000 claiming pars. Quirin's studies also revealed that pars between classes of horses invariably differ by one-fifth or two-fifths of a second, usually one-fifth. In addition, the adjustments to the older male pars for fillies and mares, three-year-olds, and maiden-claiming horses proved standard from track to track. Thus the numerical relationships between tracks will be highly stable. The Quirin approach to calculating speed figures is especially helpful for evaluating shippers, arguably the figure analyst's biggest headache.

Look at the par-time chart below. It was developed for sprints at Del Mar, the peculiar but charming resort track near San Diego, California. As before, speed figures corresponding to par times are listed alongside the class levels on the left. As always, $10,000 claiming horses 3up have been assigned a figure 100. Moving up the class ladder, the par figures improve by one or two points, usually one.

Stakes horses at Del Mar record a par of 111 in sprints. Look again at the par-time chart for Santa Anita. Although actual times differ, stakes horses at Santa Anita also earn a figure of 111 in sprints. On a Quirin chart, one point equals one length at the final time, irrespective of distance.

This page has concentrated on the speed figures generated by the two popular approaches to speed handicapping practiced in this country, promoted respectively by Beyer and Quirin. With strengths and weaknesses attaching to each, the figure handicapper's method of choice depends upon familiarity, convenience, or personal taste.