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PACE FIGURES

In the era of speed figures, pace figures have remained a relatively scarce commodity at the nation's racetracks.

Attention to pace as a fundamental factor in handicapping has experienced a renewal in recent times, as more and more of racing's casual customers gain access to speed figures, thereby driving down the mutuels on "figure" horses.

To put pace figures in proper perspective, three factors exercise a vital influence on final times. They are:

Quirin demonstrated that speed and pace figures in combination are commonly symmetrical. Consider the running times below and the corresponding speed and pace figures.

When the pace figures improve, the speed figures decline. When the pace figures decline, the speed figures improve.

That complementary reality supports a convincing argument for utilizing speed and pace figures in combination. It applies with considerable force to virtually all overnight horses. Low priced claiming horses are so susceptible to the patterns, their speed and pace figures are frequently as symmetrical as the above illustration.

Nonclaiming horses reveal fascinating variations of the basic symmetry. When maidens graduate to the nonwinners allowance conditions, a decent percentage succeed, but many more fall down. Among the failures, a majority will show speed and pace figures strikingly similar to these:
Maiden race 99 105
Where the speed figure of 105 is equal to par for the nonwinners allowance race, but the 99 is three lengths slower than par for the same race.

Almost invariably the pace of allowance sprints will require a pace figure within two lengths of par, if not par or better. Maiden graduates running 99s to the pace call cannot stay in contention and repeat the 105 speed figure. When the pace figure becomes 105 instead of 99, the speed figure usually declines by a few lengths, sometimes by several lengths. An exception is the genuinely talented nonclaiming horse who tolerates the swifter pace and duplicates the rapid final time, or even exceeds its previous best. Those are the golden nuggets, the best horses en route to stakes opportunities. The impressive improvement, however, is difficult to predict beforehand. The presumption must hold that as the pace intensifies, speed figures will fall.

Pace figures will be more meaningful in sprints than in routes. The early pace of the longer races will be sluggish much of the time. In overnight competition, extra fast pace figures always deserve extra credit, certainly in cheaper races, provided the associated speed figures have not dropped to alarming depths. Pace figures will be useless much of the time on the turf, where so often the early pace varies from an orderly procession to a crawl.

It's true too that speed and pace figures might be variously more effective, depending on the kinds of races under study. Yet speed and pace are fundamental factors of handicapping. Either, therefore, can be decisive under any circumstances.