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MAIDEN-CLAIMING RACES

Maidens-claiming horses remain the cheapest, slowest horses on the grounds. At a glance the horses' records unmistakably show, their speed figures can be dreadfully low. Many have never recorded a number approaching par for the lowest level of maiden-claiming runners in the barns.

At times, however, one of the horses displays an unusually strong pace figure. That's the horse that figures to win.

Because maiden-claiming horses are so slow and untalented, few of them can mount a stretch charge, even when the pace in front has begun to wither. The animal in control at the second call continues on, perhaps slowing noticeably, and wins. Its unimpressive speed figure is irrelevant. The others have been left behind and cannot catch up.

The classic case is the maiden dropping down to maiden claiming conditions. Unable to compete effectively with horses graduating to allowance company, maiden drop downs will regularly exhibit miserable speed figures. But many of them have run well enough for four furlongs against straight maidens. The pace figures shine brightly among today's lackluster bunch. So the maiden dropdowns take the lead early, or wrestle it away during the second fraction, and glide into the stretch in front. They win.

The same pattern occurs less frequently whenever maiden claiming horses descend from a significantly higher claiming price to today's lower level. A key indicator will be the par times for the respective maiden-claiming classes. If the par times differ by a length, no real advantage exists. But if the higher maiden-claiming level has recorded a par time faster by two lengths or greater, pace pars will be similarly faster, and a definite advantage exists.

Again the pace figure dominates. The maiden-claiming dropdown controls the race prior to the second call, protects the lead into the lane, and normally prevails. The cheaper, slower horses do not catch up.

HIGH-PRICED CLAIMING RACES, AND MEDIUM-PRICED CLAIMING RACES

Claiming horses depend upon the only attribute of class most of them possess: speed. Claiming races therefore almost invariably are decided by speed and pace. The fastest horses win. Speed and pace figures tell the tale.

At major tracks, above claiming prices of $20,000 the pace will usually be normal. Classier claiming horses can attend the familiar pace, and the outcome is decided by the horses that can then reach the finish line the fastest. Recent speed figures provide the telltale clues as to the probable winners. Whether claiming horses are moving ahead in class or dropping down in class, handicappers prefer a speed figure at least equal to today's claiming par.

If contenders have finished with a speed figure below today's par, examine the pace. If it was unusually fast, consider the speed figure of the next-to-last start. If that figure is superior to today's par, use it.

Two situations can be problematic in better claiming races.

Below $20,000 claiming at major tracks and below $12,500 claiming at minor tracks, few of the horses can deliver par figures at both the pace call and final time. Several of the cheapest races will be abysmally slow. Whenever the pace figure has been abnormally high, the speed figure will be abnormally low, and vice versa. Relatively honest and competitive horses at both the pace call and the final time are the likeliest survivors.

Handicappers can combine the pace figure and the speed figure. Add them. The highest rating wins.

3YO CLAIMING RACES/JAN THRU JUN

Three-year-olds entered to be claimed during the first half of the calendar year can be considered washouts, certainly at major tracks. They cannot run fast enough to win an allowance race restricted to horses that have never won an allowance race, and many of them cannot run fast enough to win claiming races either. This is especially true of graduates of maiden-claiming
races.

Speed figures exhibited by the cheaper three-year-olds will be volatile and generally poor. Swings of several points will be commonplace.

Discounting speed figures, favor the horses that have competed well enough early to display clearly superior pace figures. If nothing in the field can equal today's par, the top pace-figure contender deserves the nod. As always among untalented horses, the ability to grab the lead into the stretch will frequently be enough. Tiring horses win low-level claiming races all the time.

By July the three-year-old claiming division has begun to achieve a reliable resemblance of form. Trainers have learned to place the youngsters at the claiming levels where they can win, and horses will generally run to their numbers. Speed figures supersede pace figures.

A caution is appropriate here. Whenever three-year-old claiming horses take a significant climb in class, as from $25,000 to $50,000 claiming, and from any claiming race to a nonwinners allowance field, demand the pace figures be competitive. A faster, more severely contested pace typically accompanies a major class rise, and many of the horses cannot withstand the heat.

STAKES HORSES 4UP

The pace of stakes races will usually be honest to fast. Stakes horses get that way by running rapid pace figures before finishing strongly. The best horses sort themselves out at the finish line. Rely upon speed figures, not pace figures.

Unless the probable pace of a Grade 1 stakes will be unusually slow or inordinately fast, class laughs at pace in Grade 1 races. The classiest horses run the fastest times, regardless of running styles, and speed figures supersede pace figures in the highest-class stakes.

Among inexperienced stakes horses, it's another scenario entirely.

3YO STAKES HORSES

As developing horses, three-year-olds are vastly dissimilar from their older counterparts. As three-year-olds progress from the allowances and minor stakes to listed and graded stakes, they will go as far as natural abilities take them. Three-year-olds that suffer a pace weakness cannot proceed successfully to the graded races at the local track, or to the classics of spring and summer, or to the championship races against older stakes horses during fall.

Nonclaiming three-year-olds can record dazzling final times when the early pace has been soft. Others can crush fields of overnight horses early, posting dazzling pace figures, before cruising to an unexceptional final time. But only the best of any generation can deliver dazzling pace figures and speed figures in combination.

A combination of speed and pace figures among the three-year-olds is optimal and often necessary. The handicapping is both rewarding and fun.

DEEP CLOSERS

Pace figures that can be so enlightening when evaluating front-runners and pace-pressers can be meaningless when evaluating deep closers. Closers remain captives to a running style that places them far behind the early pace. In consequence, their pace figures will be relatively low. The low pace figures reflect running styles, not abilities. A pace analysis will be mandatory to determine whether closers can arrive on time.

Do not penalize closers on pace by confusing their pace figures and running styles.