PACE
ANALYSIS
EARLY
PACE
Refers to the start to the second call, which occurs after four furlongs
in sprints and after six furlongs in routes.
Identify each horse's running style; frontrunner, presser, stalker,
or closer.
Which horse(s) should control the pace at the 2nd call?
Which horse(s), frontrunners-pressers-stalkers especially have the fastest
turn-time or have run the fastest second fraction?
THE
SECOND CALL
Which
horse has the top pace figure?
If the pace is too fast, how should that affect the outcome?
Which running styles should benefit from a fast pace?
If the pace is slow, how should that affect the outcome?
Which running styles should benefit from the slow pace?
Are there any need-to-lead frontrunners that should not get the lead?
What should happen to them? Basically, they should lose.
LATE
PACE
Refers to the fractional time from the second call to the wire.
Which
horse(s) should benefit from the probable early pace?
Which horse is the strongest closer?
Of the horses without acceptable early speed, which will and will
not have striking position at the second call.
i.e. within two and three-quarter lengths in sprints, within three
and one-half lengths in routes?
Horses without early speed and no striking position at the second
call are likely to win only if one of three conditions exist.
Do
one of these conditions exist
1.
Faster-than-par, suicidal pace duel
2. A clear edge in class
3. The track profile at the distance favors closers
PACE
STANDOUTS
Pace standouts must control two segments of a race, not just one. Look
for these three pace scenarios.
1.
Fastest to the second call, plus the fastest final time
2. Cheap race, highest pace figure, drop in class
3. Three-horse speed duel, fastest closing time from off the pace.
PDQ
PACE RATING
Pace is a separation factor. It's well employed to distinguish main
contenders, the two, three, or four horses that look to have the likeliest
chances, a common racetrack scenario. For newcomers and novices it's
also the third in a trio of numerical ratings that will help enormously
to give them an edge against the crowd; speed points (early speed),
speed figures (final time), and pace ratings (the relations between
fractional times and final times).
Here
is an amazingly simple technique that anyone can use. Regardless of
the racetrack, let each of the following times equal a rating of 100.
| Fractional
Time : |
44 |
| 6
furlongs |
1:08 |
| 6.5
furlongs |
1:14 |
| 7
furlongs |
1:20 |
| 1
Mile |
1:34 |
| 1
1/16 Miles |
1:40 |
| 1
1/8 Miles |
1:45 |
Special
distances
| 5.5
furlongs |
1:02 |
| 7.5
furlongs |
1:26 |
PDQ
Pace Ratings rate three parts of a horse's race:
1. The fractional time of the race at the second call, which is 44 seconds
in sprints and 1:08 in routes.
2. The final time of the race
3. Either the fractional time of the horse or the final time of the
horse.
For each fifth of a second slower than the 100-times, subtract one point.
For
the third rating, rate the FRACTIONAL TIME OF THE HORSE in claiming
races up to $50,000.00.
Rate
the FINAL TIME OF THE HORSE in non-claiming races and in claiming races
above $50,000.00.
In
rating the fractional and final times of horses, subtract one point
from the race times for each beaten length. Half-lengths and three-quarters
lengths can be rounded up to the next slower fifth of a second; quarter-lengths
can be rounded down to the faster fifth of a second.
Example.
If a six-furlong sprint (claiming for $20,000 horses) is run in 45 2/5
seconds to the second call and the final time is 1:10 4/5 seconds, what
is the pace rating for a horse that finished third, beaten 3 3/4 at
the second call?
FRACTIONAL
TIME OF THE RACE
45 2/5 93 7/5ths, 7 points, below 100
FINAL TIME OF THE RACE
1:10 4/5 86 14/5ths, 14 points below 100
FRACTIONAL TIME OF THE HORSE
46 1/5 89 ll/5ths, 11 points below 100
PDQ Pace Rating 268
Example.
If a mile and one-sixteenth allowance race is run in 1:11 1/5 seconds
to the second call and the final time is 144 1/5 seconds, what is the
PDQ pace rating of the winner?
FRACTIONAL
TIME OF THE RACE
1:11
1/5 84 16/5ths, 16 points, below 100
FINAL TIME OF THE RACE
1:44 1/5 79 21/5ths, 21 points, below 100
FINAL TIME OF THE HORSE
1:44 1/5 79 21/5ths, 21 points, below 100
PDQ Pace Rating 242
Practice.
Calculate the PDQ (pretty damn quick) pace ratings for the following
horses.
1.
Horse A is beaten three lengths at the second call in a $10,000 claiming
race that is run in 46 2/5 at the second call and the final time is
1:12 1/5 seconds.
2. Horse B is beaten a half-length in a stakes race of 7furlongs that
has been run in 44 4/5 to the second call and the final time is 1:22
3/5 seconds.
3. Horse C is a maiden beaten by five lengths at a mile that has been
run in 1:11 3/5 to the second call and a final time of 1:36 2/5 seconds?
4. Horse D loses by 1 1/4 lengths in a fast $80,000 claiming race
in which it set the pace of 1:10 1/5 seconds to a final time of 1:42
flat.
5. Horse E Is beaten a nose at the second call and at the finish in
a $40,000 claiming sprint at six and one-half furlongs that went 45
1/5 to the pace call and 1:16 3/5 at the finish.
The
answers are:
1. 252
2. 269
3. 253
4. 258
5. 275
In
using PDQ Pace Ratings, do not compare sprint ratings with route ratings.
Small
differences in the ratings between horses, below five points, may not
be meaningful, but if horses have a 6-point edge or greater on the others,
the ratings deserve extra credit.
In
sprints, a particularly strong PDQ Pace Rating is 270 or greater; in
routes, a strong rating is 260 or greater.
In
comparing horses from different racetracks, be careful to determine
if one track is significantly faster or slower than the others. If so,
the PDQ Pace Ratings may be high or low, not because of differences
in horses' abilities, but due to differences in track-surface speeds.
