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Secondary Factors
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Pedigree
Weight
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TRACK SURFACE/POST POSITION

Wet surfaces generally favor speed horses.
Drying surfaces may favor speed or stamina (closers).
Specifically:

Wet fast favors speed
Sloppy favors speed
Muddy favors speed
Good favors speed or stamina
Heavy favors stamina

Soft grass favors horses who like that footing, as indicated by past wins. Foreign grass horses tend to like soft and yielding turf courses more than their American counter parts.

Post position is usually an incidental factor in handicapping, rarely decisive.

The most difficult post to overcome finds frontrunners and pace-pressers outside (post 8 or wider) at 1 mile and 1 1/16 mile. With a short run to the clubhouse turn, the horses swing wide while being used. That's a legitimate excuse for fading, and often an attractive trip playback.

Post Position No. 1 has a tainted reputation in sprints, but the reputation is not deserved. In the absence of a negative rail bias, the rail post wins equally as often as other post positions. Do not mark rail horses down unfairly.

In grass routes, inside posts should be preferred. They win more than their fair share, and sometimes dominate.

After race meetings have been running for 30 days, check the post-position statistics in the Daily Racing Form to identify any post-position biases, positive or negative.

T H E     E S S E N T I A L S
Handicapping: Factors, Process, Applications, Methods
Extras: Pedigree Database, The Horse, Links, Race Tracks

 
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