PACE
Pace
analysis considers the relationships among three factors.
Fractional Times
Final Time
Running Styles
The
objective of pace analysis is to determine whether one horse
can:
Set and maintain the fastest fractional times, or track and
overtake today's probable fractional times.
Pace
is usually best employed as a separation factor when contenders
are closely matched, or when the fractions should be unusually
fast or unusually slow.
Two
components of a race's pace are readily defined and easily
distinguished.
Early pace Start to 2nd call
Late Pace 2nd call to finish
Two
important points about pace. Pace standouts must dominate
two pace segments, not just one. Early speed is not enough.
In sprints, the most important fraction is typically the 2nd
fraction (1st call to 2nd call), frequently referred to as
"turn-time" because the fractional time often occurs
on the far turn.
Handicappers
must learn how to:
A) Calculate pace ratings
B) Interpret and use pace figures/ratings effectively
Both
purposes can be accomplished admirably by studying and practicing
with Quirin style speed and pace figures. The method demonstrates
clearly that for most horses when their speed figures improve,
their pace figures decline. And when their pace figures improve,
their speed figures decline. The Quirin speed and pace procedures
are described in the "Methods Section", under "Speed
Handicapping."
Another
approach to calculating and analyzing pace ignores speed and
pace figures and deals only with the actual running times
of races.
It's
called "PDQ Pace Ratings", the letters meaning "pretty
damn quick", procedure is described in the "Methods
Section", under "Pace Analysis".
Here
are a few hot tips handicappers should remember about pace.
