SPRINTS AND ROUTES

At tracks of one mile in circumference, sprints are races contested around one turn. Routes are races contested around two turns.

At tracks 11/4 miles in circumference, the frequently carded one-turn mile is actually an elongated sprint, far more comfortable for sprinters than routers. Sprints are relatively short distances hospitable to speed horses and less susceptible to the influences of stamina or the intangibles of class, such as determination and courage. Early speed, final time, early pace, and turn time represent the handicapping factors of greatest persuasion, with speed variables at least twice as significant as any other.

In sprints, in the timeless equations balancing speed and class, how fast horses have run is twice as important as the kind of opposition they have defeated. That is, speed supersedes class by a two to one weighting. Accurate speed figures, or pace ratings, are indispensable to evaluating contenders.

Furthermore, whenever the figures or ratings justify the maneuver, claiming horses in sprints can leap ahead in class and win decisively. The point cannot be overstated. Recreational handicappers need to know how fast horses have actually run in sprints

Occasional racegoers imagine the No. 1 post position performs at a disadvantage in sprints, but probability studies dispel that perception absolutely. The No. 1 post wins slightly more than its rightful share of the races. The finding generalizes to all racetracks.

The only factor capable of altering the impact of speed and pace in sprints is a strong track bias.

A positive speed bias, of course, propels speed horses even more in sprints. Prefer the fastest horse, or the speed of the speed, as the punters put it.

A positive rail bias assists frontrunners inside, and casual racegoers can sense the presence of the bias from a cursory study of post-position win percentages printed in the Daily Racing Form. Look for a win percentage twice as great as the middle posts. A win percentage twice as great may indicate a positive rail bias, or may be a statistical fluctuation. The more races in the sample, the better.

Recreational handicappers must understand that typical two-horse speed duels do not result in another off-pace horse winning the race. As often as not, one of the baffling frontrunners survives the duel and wins. The facile race analysis in sprints, that frontrunners will weaken one another into defeat, is not substantiated by the facts. Only when the pace to the second call will be abnormally fast, and the pressure severe, does the speed duel result in a suicide.

WEIGHT, JOCKEY, AND PEDIGREE
ARE IRRELEVANT IN SPRINTS.
Routes are vastly dissimilar from sprints. Speed is not unimportant, but now class and pace begin to exert more powerful influences. As distances lengthen and the competition stiffens, endurance and determination must inexorably be summoned. Early swift must be carried. It's no wonder the cream of each generation are brilliant types that can stretch the high speed across classic distances.

In cheaper routes, to be sure - the claiming races up to $20,000 selling prices -early speed and adjusted final times still stake a heavy claim on the winner's circle. Cheap speed steals cheap routes consistently.

In better routes, for high-priced older claiming horses and the allowances and the stakes the equation changes. Now speed, endurance, and determination strongly interact, and class is half again as important as speed, by a three to two weighting. Up to 1 3/16 miles, unless a horse sticks out on the numbers, a careful pace analysis regularly reveals the probable winners, as pace separates closely matched nonclaiming horses more reliably than any other factor.

The pace of routes at the fractional call (six furlongs) will be more variable than the pace of sprints. Recreational handicappers should be flexible. If nonclaiming horses typically run 1:11.3 to the six-furlong call of races at 1 1/16 miles, a deviation of two to three lengths faster or slower should raise no eyebrows.

But if the route pace will be abnormally fast, or abnormally slow, pace immediately becomes the telltale clue. An abnormally fast pace among better horses favors off-pace running styles, and often closers, as pace-pressers will have tracked the inordinately swift leaders and fire from the effort.

An abnormally slow pace among better horses favors the frontrunners. Having conserved their energy, they now release it, and other horses, however swift, cannot easily catch up.

If a good frontrunner will be the lone speed horse in a nonclaiming route, and handicappers sense the horse can be rated and will therefore relax on the lead, the bet is almost automatic, unless the odds are prohibitively low.

In any route race among better horses, if the pace should be contested by three horses or more, find the contender that has demonstrated the ability to be rated behind the front flight. A fast nonclaiming horse that doesn't need the early advantage will surge to the front once the others weaken. That's a tough individual to defeat.

If a pace analysis proves inconclusive when analyzing contenders in nonclaiming routes, prefer the horse having the highest class rating. The rating should be recent, within 90 days, unless form is clearly on the improve and the animal boasts back class. "When in doubt go to the class" is a cliché that has become passé in modern racing, but it makes stricter sense in closely competitive routes.

In one situation, uncommon, pace analysis is less meaningful than many experienced handicappers appreciate. In Grade 1 stakes at classic distances, prefer the best horse. Pace now is incidental. The class of the field overpowers the pace, and wins.

Frontrunners outside at middle distances, even in middle posts, often experience traffic on the inside in the rush to the first turn, and end up wide. Trip handicappers insist the wide swings of frontrunners at middle distances rank among the worst of trips for contenders. If the wide frontrunners persevere to the top of the lane before tiring, a smooth trip probably would have ended in a much closer finish. The horses can be supported next time, notably if reactivated quickly.

Many recreational handicappers believe routers will be unable to tally at familiar distances following a long layoff. Statistics prove the opposite. Routers do significantly better than sprinters following an absence. The slower pace of the route does not exhaust horses as badly. Related routes are middle distances of a mile to 1 3/16 miles.